Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
