Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
